Should You Wait for Rates to Drop Before Buying in Chandler?

The mortgage rates we’re seeing right now are scary enough, even for October. What the experts expect from now until the end of next year might not be what you want to hear.

But it comes with some good news, too.

A new mortgage rate forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), a national group representing the mortgage industry, dropped a few days ago. According to its forecast, MBA economists expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to stay above 7% through the end of 2027. As of October 15, the weekly average rate has been at 7.40% for two straight weeks, according to Freddie Mac—the highest it’s been in three years.

Today, I’m walking you through what the experts expect, how buyers right here in Chandler are handling these rates, and the exact questions to ask lenders when shopping for a loan.

What the Experts Expect for Mortgage Rates

MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni shared the group’s latest forecast at its annual conference in Chicago on October 11. His forecast calls for:

• An average 30-year mortgage rate of 7.3% from October through December 2026
• Rates staying above 7% through the end of 2027

As to how much relief buyers can expect, Fratantoni put it plainly:

"We’re going to come down from this spike in rates. The unfortunate news is, I don’t think we’re going to come down that far."

The primary driver is inflation, which continues to run well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven partly by higher energy costs. To combat inflation, the Fed recently raised its benchmark rate, and MBA projects two additional modest increases: one in December 2026 and another in early 2027.

Mortgage rates typically track the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders watch closely when setting consumer rates. The MBA expects the yield to average 5.1% this quarter and hover near 5% through 2027.

How Buyers Are Adjusting to 7% Rates

Buyers who are actively moving forward aren't simply sitting on the sidelines—they're actively finding creative ways to reduce their borrowing costs. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan highlighted two options gaining traction:

"The buyers who are still in the market are increasingly turning to ARM loans or paying points to lower their rates for the life of the loan. The ARM share of applications averaged almost 10% over the past month and MBA forecasts that it will remain over 9% through 2027."

Here is how each option works:

• Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM): Offers a lower initial interest rate for a fixed period (such as 5 or 7 years). Once that fixed period expires, the rate adjusts periodically based on market conditions, meaning your monthly payment could increase.
• Discount Points: Involves paying an upfront fee at closing to permanently lower your interest rate for the duration of the loan. This reduces your ongoing monthly payment, though it requires more upfront capital at closing.

The right path depends heavily on how long you intend to stay in the home and your available liquid cash. A trusted lender can run side-by-side scenarios for you.

What This Means If You’re Waiting to Buy (and the Local Chandler Advantage)

If MBA’s forecast holds true, waiting for interest rates to drop substantially below 7% could push your plans to 2028 or beyond. Nationally, purchase activity is running about 9% below January levels, annual home price growth has hovered around 2%, and new construction starts are expected to moderate.

However, local conditions give buyers a significant advantage:

In Chandler, buyers are navigating a balanced market where homes take about 45 days to sell and close near 99% of list price. With nearly 58% of active homes cutting their asking price and over half of sellers granting concessions (averaging around $10,500), buyers have strong leverage to negotiate rate buydowns and closing cost credits.

Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period April 18, 2026 through October 18, 2026.

Those seller concessions can directly fund permanent or temporary 2-1 interest rate buydowns, effectively cutting your interest rate without requiring extra cash out of pocket at closing.

5 Questions to Ask When Calling Lenders

Rates and closing costs vary widely from lender to lender, which is why interviewing at least two or three mortgage professionals is essential. Bring these questions to each conversation:

1. How much will it cost to buy down the rate with points, and what is the break-even timeline for that investment?
2. If I opt for an ARM, how long does the introductory rate remain locked, and what are the adjustment caps after that?
3. What specific interest rate and APR can you offer on a standard 30-year fixed mortgage today?
4. What lender fees, origination charges, and third-party costs are included on the Loan Estimate?
5. What are the terms of your rate-lock policy, and do you offer a float-down option if rates drop before closing?

Be sure to ask each lender for an official Loan Estimate form so you can make an apples-to-apples comparison of fees and terms.

If you need recommendations for trusted, responsive local lenders who know the East Valley market inside and out, reach out anytime—I’m happy to share contacts who take great care of my clients.

Getting clarity on your financing options early ensures you enter the market with confidence and a solid monthly budget.